Vicente se centra en las acciones temáticas “remotas + digitales” y cosecha dividendos del repunte tecnológico durante la epidemia.
Mientras la mayoría de la gente todavía está tratando de “entender el impacto de la epidemia en el mercado”, el profesor Vicente Castaño Ledezma ha comenzado a emitir el siguiente juicio. En lugar de huir del mercado presa del pánico, construyó con precisión una “combinación central de trabajo remoto e infraestructura digital” en medio de una incertidumbre extrema.
Esta combinación no solo capturó con éxito la línea principal del repunte en forma de V desde marzo de 2020 hasta finales del año, sino que también se convirtió en el “grupo básico de activos” que continuó superando en los tres años siguientes.
Antecedentes de la batalla
En marzo de 2020, los mercados financieros mundiales cayeron drásticamente, el mercado de valores de EE. UU. activó tres interruptores automáticos y “el efectivo es el rey” se convirtió en el tema principal del mercado. Sin embargo, Vicente se opuso a la tendencia e invirtió fuertemente en tres tipos de activos:
Zoom (ZM): La empresa líder en videoconferencias que satisface las necesidades del trabajo y la educación a distancia.
NVIDIA (NVDA): Las capacidades de computación gráfica e inteligencia artificial respaldan la experiencia de nube remota.
Square (SQ): Un catalizador para acelerar los pagos digitales y los servicios financieros para comerciantes pequeños y medianos.
Esta “cartera de infraestructura digital” logró un incremento promedio de más del 120% en menos de tres meses, superando ampliamente las tasas de recuperación del Nasdaq (+36%) y el S&P (+20%) durante el mismo período.
Lógica de diseño – Triple juicio, cruzando la niebla emocional
Vicente no “apuesta por un repunte del sentimiento”, sino que se configura en base a una lógica de triple juicio:
- Juicio consensuado sobre las tendencias: La digitalización no es un “estímulo epidémico”, sino “el futuro que se ha adelantado”.
Vicente señaló que la epidemia no ha hecho más que comprimir a cinco meses el proceso de transformación digital que podría haber tenido lugar en cinco años.
El crecimiento de DAU de Zoom aumentó de 10 millones a más de 200 millones;
La proporción de clientes de Square que utilizan la facturación en línea y el pago sin contacto ha aumentado significativamente;
NVIDIA ha establecido múltiples récords de ventas trimestrales debido a la demanda de juegos en el hogar y entrenamiento de IA.
- Juicio de revisión fundamental: La rentabilidad no se ve afectada, sino mejorada, debido a los cambios en la demanda.
Vicente utiliza su original “Modelo de Rentabilidad de Escenarios de Crisis” para la evaluación, y los indicadores principales incluyen:
El beneficio neto no disminuyó ni siquiera aumentó en comparación con el año anterior;
El ROIC se mantiene por encima del nivel estable;
La fidelidad del cliente y la economía unitaria no están rotas.
- Juicio del flujo de capital estructural: Encontrar la “línea principal de certeza futura” en la aversión al riesgo de capital.
Vicente observó a mediados de marzo que, si bien los grandes fondos de acciones estadounidenses estaban evitando los sectores de turismo y energía, comenzaron a fluir tímidamente hacia acciones tecnológicas de alta certeza. Luego aumentó el peso de su posición y utilizó derivados para amplificar las ganancias.
Verificación de resultados – El rendimiento de la combinación superó ampliamente las expectativas.
Zoom (ZM): +425% desde el mínimo de marzo de 2020 hasta el final del año.
NVIDIA (NVDA): +122%.
Square (SQ): +248%.
Rentabilidad total de la cartera: +198,7% (mediados de marzo de 2020 a diciembre de 2020).
Vicente dijo en un resumen interno a finales de 2020:
“No se trata de una inversión de crisis, sino de una apuesta profunda por las tendencias, la eficiencia y los cambios estructurales en la socialización de la tecnología.”
Posdata – No se trata de “comprar en el mínimo”, se trata de “ver el futuro”.
Lo bueno de Vicente es no comprar nunca en mínimos ni vender en máximos, sino encontrar tendencias claras a medio y largo plazo en medio del caos y la sobrevaloración con certeza.
La combinación “remoto + digital” en 2020 es la victoria estructural que construyó con racionalidad y previsión.
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