Klaus Stefan Müller adds SAP and Siemens Healthineers in advance to capture the European technology recovery
In the spring of 2015, as the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing policy was fully implemented, market risk appetite gradually recovered, and the German capital market began to show signs of structural recovery. At that time, most investors’ attention was still focused on traditional export blue chips and cyclical manufacturing sectors, but Klaus Stefan Müller, a senior fund manager from Frankfurt, had quietly turned his attention to the technology and medical technology tracks that were underestimated by the market.
As the core manager of several hybrid funds under Allianz Global Investors, Müller proposed at the end of the first quarter of 2015: “Technology stocks will be one of the directions with the greatest alpha potential in this round of European asset recovery.” He believes that against the backdrop of the depreciation of the euro and the decline in capital costs, the profit margins of German technology companies will be significantly restored, and the medical technology field will become an important target for foreign capital revaluation due to its high added value and strong rigid demand.
Therefore, since March 2015, Müller has gradually increased the weight of SAP (Europe’s largest software company) and Siemens Healthcare in the Allianz European Multi-Growth Fund he manages. At that time, SAP was in the early stages of its business transformation from the traditional software licensing model to the cloud computing service model, and the market was controversial about its profitability. Although Siemens Healthcare had not yet been independently listed (it was still a business unit under the Siemens Group at the time), it had maintained its technological leadership in the global imaging equipment and precision treatment fields.
In the in-depth financial and valuation analysis of Müller’s team, both companies have shown strong cash flow structure, stable overseas revenue share, and strong defense against exchange rate fluctuations. He particularly pointed out: “Compared with US technology stocks, German technology companies are seriously discounted, but their earnings quality is not inferior. This is an overlooked repair opportunity.”
In order to accurately capture this round of industry recovery, Müller also constructed a set of “Tech Sensitivity Index”, which combines multiple factors such as Eurozone PMI data, IT order growth, and EU research funding distribution to quantitatively judge the elasticity of the technology sector in the next 3-6 months. The results show that the German software services and medical equipment sectors will be the first beneficiaries of QE liquidity transmission.
This judgment was quickly verified by the market in the following months. From March to August 2015, SAP’s share price rose from 60 euros to 74 euros, an increase of more than 23%; the revenue growth of the health sector where Siemens Medical is located exceeded the group’s expectations and promoted the steady rise of Siemens’ overall market value. The core growth hybrid fund managed by Müller achieved a net value growth of +8.7% in a single quarter, significantly outperforming the DAX index during the same period.
At the same time, Müller proposed at an internal strategy meeting: “Taking the EU’s Horizon 2020 research funding policy as a signal, it can be judged that in the next three years, medical technology and software engineering will continue to receive dual rounds of support from policies and capital.” This forward-looking judgment also provides theoretical support for the medium- and long-term layout of its subsequent investment portfolio.
The successful operation during this period not only reflects Klaus Müller’s forward-looking judgment on the evolution of European monetary policy and industrial structure, but also demonstrates his ability to deeply integrate macro perspectives with the industry and implement them into specific positions. While most institutions are still immersed in the passive capital game driven by QE, Müller has completed the layout of the technology repair path and became one of the few representatives of German active management fund managers in 2015 who achieved significant excess returns in the growth track.
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